1. Introduction
1.1 Problem Statement / Use Case
Watauga County, North Carolina, is currently experiencing a housing shortage that is expected to intensify in the near future. The shortage is exacerbated by vacation rentals and student housing, which has significantly reduced the available residential housing options. The Watauga Housing Solutions Committee is partnering with other community and local government organizations looking to develop affordable and workforce housing in order to mitigate the severe decreases in housing affordability. The housing council is currently working with developers to prioritize the most feasible sites to pursue for purchase and development. Because of the extreme physical conditions of the landscape (slope, soils, etc.), there is currently no streamlined system in place to help identify suitable parcels for development. In response to this issue, we have been contracted to develop an application-based data framework that is designed to identify land parcels based on their likelihood to be developed for affordable workforce housing. This data framework has been designed to function as an interactive application interface that will allow users to input criteria related to land supply and combine it with likelihood estimates to rank each parcel in the county in terms of development suitability.
1.2 Project Client
The main project client is the Watauga Housing Council and its Housing Solutions Committee. This organization is tasked with responding to the economic, environmental, and social aspects of the county to provide adequate housing options for all residents. Our main points of contacts within the housing council are Dr. Kellie Reed Ashcraft (Facilitator/Organizer, Watauga Housing Council), Dr. Chris Quattro (Assistant Professor, Appalachian State University/Member, Watauga Housing Council), Laura Beach (Member, Watauga Housing Council).
1.3 Dependent Variable
The key indicator for development that will be used is the administrative record associated with septic system permits. This permit is exclusively granted when a property satisfies the requirements for both land supply and developer demand at that specific site. Due to the rural nature of the project area, there is relatively low wastewater sewer coverage. Subsequently, a septic system is critical for new development, and a site cannot be developed without one. Our approach will involve identifying the site suitability characteristics (e.g., slope, soil type) most closely related to the probability of a parcel receiving a septic permit. Using this information, we will forecast the likelihood that a given parcel will receive a new septic permit, which is the dependent variable.
To conduct this analysis, we used permit data gathered online from 2017 & 2022. Being able to observe how permitting has changed over those 5 years will help us predict which parcels are most likely to be suitable for development in our future target year of 2025. Watauga County approved 300 new septic permits in 2017, The number increased to 472 in 2022. The data indicates a 57.33% increase in the number of septic permits over the five-year period. The increase in septic permits suggests a significant increase in new development and land use change in Watauga County over the past five years.
2. Exploratory Data Analysis
2.1 Demographics
Watauga County has undergone notable demographic shifts over the last five years. In 2017, the county’s population was 53,421, which rose to 54,540 by 2022, indicating a steady increase in residents. This growth underscores the importance for the Housing Council to proactively address future housing demands as more people continue to make Watauga their home. Alongside population growth, the median age in Watauga has also increased, from 30.6 in 2017 to 32.1 in 2022. Despite this rise, the county maintains a youthful demographic compared to surrounding areas, which typically see median ages in the mid to upper 40s, likely influenced by Watauga’s substantial student population.
Additionally, the average household size has shown a slight decrease, moving from 2.35 in 2017 to 2.30 in 2022. This change mirrors trends in neighboring counties, where the average household size ranges between 2 and 3 people, suggesting a predominance of family units over single individuals or couples. In terms of economic metrics, the median household income in 2022 was $50,034, aligning closely with nearby counties like Ashe, Avery, Caldwell, and Wilkes, which have median incomes within $3,000 of Watauga’s. However, these figures also highlight the county’s relatively lower income levels compared to the national median of $74,580, emphasizing the need for targeted economic and housing policies to support the community’s growing and diversifying population.
Population Size
Median Age
Average Household Size
In 2017, the median household size in Watauga County was 2.35. Decreasing slightly in 2022 at 2.30, household size largely mirrors those of surrounding counties, which all experience households of approximately 2-3 people. This suggests that many homes in the area are families, rather than just individuals or couples living together.
Median Income
In 2022, Watauga County saw a median household income of $50,034. This is on par with the surrounding counties of Ashe, Avery, Caldwell, and Wilkes, which fell within $3,000 of this range. ($49,176-$53,313). The county experiences relatively low incomes, compared to the national median of $74,580.
2.2 Current State of Housing
In 2022, Watauga County’s housing landscape demonstrated a complex mix of ownership and rental challenges amid demographic shifts due to the local university population. Approximately 61% of homes in the county are owner-occupied, which juxtaposes interestingly with the demographic influx from Appalachian State University, indicating that a majority of adults not associated with the university are likely homeowners. This figure highlights a relatively stable ownership rate but also masks underlying issues in the rental market.
Despite a regional downtrend, Watauga County has experienced an increase in rent burden since 2017, with more than two-thirds of residents now spending over 30% of their income on rent, signaling a growing instability in the local housing market. This rise in rent burden suggests that despite the high rate of home ownership, affordability remains a pressing concern, particularly for renters.
On the ownership side, the median house value in Watauga stands at $283,000, aligning with the national average property value. There has been some improvement in housing affordability among owners over the past five years, with the percentage of unaffordable owner-occupied houses decreasing from 15.6% in 2017 to 14.4% in 2022. This rate of unaffordable housing is slightly better than the national average of 16.8%, indicating a positive trend towards greater affordability for homeowners.
The county’s demographic profile is significantly shaped by the presence of Appalachian State University, which hosts over 18,000 students. Approximately 30% of the county’s population comprises college students, impacting the local economy and the housing market. The influence of the student population necessitates careful planning from the Housing Council to accommodate both the current and future housing needs of students and the broader community as students transition into the workforce within the county.
Lastly, vehicle ownership is notably high in Watauga, with nearly every household owning at least one car, and about 14,000 households owning two or more. This prevalence of vehicle ownership indicates that mobility within the county is largely car-dependent, influencing daily travel patterns and potentially impacting housing location preferences related to accessibility and commute distances.
Housing by Occupancy Type (Own vs. Rent)
Rent Burden
Number of Households by Vehicles Owned
2.4 Physical Features
Land Cover Changes Over 10 Years
Watauga County has experienced significant land cover changes from 2011 to 2021, reflecting a notable shift towards development at the expense of natural landscapes. The data indicates a 13.89% increase in developed areas encompassing low, medium, and high-intensity developments, with medium intensity seeing the most significant growth at 17.22% by 2021. Concurrently, there has been a dramatic reduction in natural land covers, with a 56.5% decrease in Grassland/Herbaceous areas and a 50% reduction in Shrub/Scrub land. These changes are likely due to the conversion of open fields and grasslands into developed land or agricultural use, though the majority of the land remains natural or semi-natural with a small rise in developed open spaces.
The 2021 land cover data further underscores Watauga County’s rich natural resources against its moderate urban development. The area is predominantly forested, with 74.56% of the land covered by forests, including 54.16% deciduous, 19.2% mixed, and 1.2% evergreen forests. Developed areas constitute only 13.89% of the total land cover, with 11.23% as developed open space, 1.48% low intensity, 0.9% medium density, and 0.28% high intensity. The preponderance of development is classified as open space, such as parks, golf courses, or agricultural land that maintains the rural character of the county. The smaller percentages of more intensive developments reflect concentrated urbanization around cities and transportation corridors, indicating strategic land use planning that balances natural landscape preservation with residential and commercial growth. This careful balance suggests a mindful approach to development, prioritizing the maintenance of natural covers while accommodating necessary growth over the past decade.
2011-2021
2011
2013
2016
2019
2021
Slope & Soil
In Watauga County, where the landscape is predominantly mountainous, development is highly dependent on the terrain’s topography. Slope is a critical factor in assessing the feasibility of construction projects, with steeper slopes presenting significant challenges. Utilizing slope data, we’ve identified areas where the gradient exceeds 25°—well below the maximum development-friendly slope of 65% (approximately 33.02°)—as unsuitable for development. The reclassified slope degrees within the county are visually represented in a plot where green areas indicate slopes suitable for development, and white areas represent unsuitable zones.
Additionally, the county’s diverse soil composition includes over 80 types of soil, crucial for determining the appropriate design and installation of septic systems. Soil types affect the water absorption rate and the necessary depth for septic systems. An analysis of the USDA’s soil database reveals that these soils are categorized by their Map Unit Symbol (MUSYM) into three main groups based on their drainage capabilities and permeability: A-Moderately Rapid Infiltration Rate, B-Moderate Infiltration Rate, and C-Low Infiltration Rate. Type C soil, characterized by low infiltration rates and good drainage, is identified as optimal for septic system installation, contrasting sharply with the less desirable, poorly drained soils.
Slope
Soil
Distance to Calculations
In Watauga County, landslide risk predominantly dictates parcel safety, with proximity to landslide-prone areas being a critical factor. The northeastern region, characterized by its gentler slopes, is identified as the safest area, as depicted in the provided figure where white lines, often indicative of streams or roads, demarcate parcel boundaries.
Water management is also vital in the county’s planning strategy, especially concerning the placement of septic systems relative to watersheds. The central region of Watauga County lies close to essential water supply zones, necessitating stringent measures to prevent pollution and safeguard the water supply during septic system installation. This careful management ensures that environmental impacts are minimized.
Furthermore, the accessibility of parcels to transportation infrastructure is crucial for their development potential. The analysis shows that while some parcels are well-connected, areas in the southwest and northeast of Watauga lack sufficient road access, potentially limiting their development. Despite Watauga’s extensive network of water bodies, which influence septic system design due to their impact on the water table, our evaluations focus on the distance from the parcel’s center of mass to the nearest river, finding minimal variance in proximity across the county. This comprehensive approach to analyzing geographical and environmental factors ensures informed decision-making in land development and resource management.
Note: The white lines in the plots represent gaps between the parcels. They often correlate with streams or roads.
Distance to Landslide
Distance to Watershed
Distance to the nearest Road
Road is one of the most important infrastructures for housing development.We filtered out the roads with traffic equal to or higher than 2000.